There is no point in dressing it up: current industry forecasts point to a clear rise in fuel prices. Standard diesel is expected to increase by eight cents per litre, while standard petrol should go up by three cents per litre.
Why fuel prices are rising: the Israel–Iran conflict
As we had already indicated earlier this week, the impact of the conflict between Israel and Iran - one of the world’s 10 largest oil producers - has been pushing up the price per barrel since the end of last week. Before Israel’s first strike, it was at 69 dollars. Yesterday, it reached 78,8 dollars.
Fuel prices from 23 June: expected rises for diesel and petrol
That increase is set to filter through to the pumps at the start of next week (23 June). If the predicted changes materialise, the average price of standard diesel will jump to 1,616 €/l, while standard 95 petrol is expected to stand at 1,722 €/l.
How the average prices are calculated (DGEG)
These fuel price calculations are based on figures published by the Directorate-General for Energy and Geology (DGEG) - in this case, the data from last Thursday, 19 June.
The DGEG figures already factor in the discounts offered by fuel retailers, along with the Government measures currently in force.
Even so, it is important to stress that these are not necessarily the prices you will see at service stations. They are average, indicative values, and retailers are free to set whatever prices they choose.
Current Government measures
The Government measures introduced in 2022 to soften the impact of rising fuel prices remain in place, mainly affecting the level of ISP (the Portuguese fuel tax).
This year, the ISP rate rose by three cents per litre, but because the carbon tax component fell, the overall tax burden on fuels did not change.
As a result, the combined total of all “tax discounts” comes to 17,6 cents less per litre of diesel and 19,2 cents per litre of petrol.
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